The landscape · updated Oct 22, 2026
Where AI capability actually is.
Every model in LMArena's style-controlled text leaderboard dataset since August 2024, in four categories, on one aligned scale. These are relative preference ratings, not absolute ability. Press play to watch the frontier move, or pick any point to see the evidence behind it.
Capability over time
Table: frontier records (latest ratings at this cut)
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Writing
Essay · Oct 23, 2026
Are we in the good timeline?
AI is already helping build the next AI. One analyst's reconstruction puts us roughly on AI 2027's schedule, with a wide conditional range, and that's not the question that matters.
Coming next
The Diffusion Clock
How fast frontier capability reaches smaller, cheaper open models, and whether that lag is shrinking.